Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9657faa6d9b0cdb00ac6ddc79df639004af7c61de4199e4588014284f67133a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked No | 67c | 2,975$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.47 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 2,913$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.17 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 1,400$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.47 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 24c | 780.81$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.29 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 69c | 591.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 31c | 324.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 32c | 293.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 35c | 286.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 65c | 267.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed No | 78c | 260.49$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 213.68$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 209.41$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 67c | 200.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 27c | 156.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 22c | 153.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 74c | 117.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 32c | 108.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 87.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 86.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 74.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Yes | 20c | 74.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0378…030bbacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 30c | 49.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 25c | 45.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 33c | 45.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…bfaebacked Yes | 32c | 33.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 67c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.