Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ac8cc1e49fe4f53b43bba73d82194a3442afd48895759f292e231e44c40870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 53c | 390.02$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 48c | 362.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 48c | 329$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 48c | 259.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…06edbacked Yes | 47c | 209$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 44c | 199.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 41c | 155$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…61b1backed Yes | 43c | 141.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 50c | 127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…469cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…6119backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 101.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 50c | 100.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c9…e4a0backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 98.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 44c | 96.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 96.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 44c | 89.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…3a90backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…b91bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe213…f828backed Yes | 47c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…ca35backed Yes | 42c | 71.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…0306backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…0420backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 46.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…e65cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf605…b676backed No | 51c | 35.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1,196.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 39c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 86 | 79.1%68 W · 18 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff51…b7e5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.