Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e27ce7fc0e450f58f642e2427f24dfa3184cfc0dbb997ba81f5c90000eea54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 33c | 2,145$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.76 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 53c | 1,893$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.47 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 47c | 1,854$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.24 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 68c | 915$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.7 | 151 | 21.2%32 W · 119 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…47f5backed Up | 33c | 759.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Down | 22c | 702.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 32c | 528.64$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 40c | 331.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed Up | 52c | 325$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 79c | 235$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Down | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 61c | 179.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…0e57backed Up | 35c | 170$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Up | 72c | 166.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…3f3dbacked Down | 46c | 87.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed Down | 36c | 85.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 33c | 64.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Down | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…9345backed Up | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…c0e1backed Up | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 33c | 48.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Down | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Down | 62c | 43.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Up | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…01fdbacked Up | 64c | 38.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…d178backed Down | 53c | 37.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Up | 78c | 32.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c82dbacked Up | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…33a9backed Down | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed Up | 50c | 26.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Down | 58c | 22.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Up | 58c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 75c | 21.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 53c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked Up | 78c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.