Movies · resolved market
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360fbda919c2cf7f230457c6d46e0ab0d67b115536aca01f7ff666f4237365be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 36c | 2,208$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.63 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 36c | 694.97$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 65c | 484.07$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 37c | 404.74$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 42c | 324$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 265$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 37c | 255$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 65c | 214.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 53c | 200.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 61c | 185.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 175$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 65c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 90.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed No | 64c | 84.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 43c | 78.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…9976backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…8424backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…5520backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…7f3bbacked No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…5409backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…c478backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…715ebacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8f09backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…39c8backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…4a97backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7e…4858backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…370fbacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…64c3backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…1477backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…6f63backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c22…e09abacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…2918backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…625cbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?this page
- Will Angelina Jolie win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?Yes won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Marianne Jean-Baptiste win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.