Movies · resolved market
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a0a1c8d14bedfb3aff6703cbc6645cc6c06f8de56284675c61acfc207ba18c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 35c | 1,956$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.62 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…0917backed Yes | 56c | 1,845$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…f63dbacked No | 44c | 1,845$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 65c | 1,535$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 41c | 818.38$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 65c | 565.51$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 57c | 489.06$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…3605backed No | 42c | 468.52$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b47…4500backed Yes | 58c | 468.52$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 400$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 45c | 365.32$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 61c | 355.25$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 56c | 323$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.39 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 53c | 303.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 56c | 230.37$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…3841backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 60c | 196$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…2096backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes | 61c | 182.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 61c | 181.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 40c | 175$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 127$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 67c | 111.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 42c | 101.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 56c | 90.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 26c | 87.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 66c | 75.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…d3a5backed Yes | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…5409backed Yes | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 45c | 33.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 44c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Demi Moore win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?this page
- Will Angelina Jolie win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Cynthia Erivo win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Marianne Jean-Baptiste win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
- Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.