MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36205363d937441634df38790c5736cf33333c1d6a03082c4641c1b7b99686bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 42c | 2,526$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.79 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,135$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.4 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 43c | 460.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 362.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 58c | 361.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 59c | 225$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 220.46$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 182.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 172.8$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 163.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 58c | 160.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 154$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 125.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 67c | 84.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 55c | 69.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 42c | 67.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 44c | 63.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 41c | 61.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 58.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 58c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 44c | 33.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 55c | 24.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.