Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3624ba110bd1b12751edc411f2228f382291e14d715b5f7921d58e7ff2f1ecbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 46c | 1,208$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 30c | 785.09$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 46c | 388.27$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…5cacbacked Yes | 42c | 283.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…8cb4backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…2a19backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…35d0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 34cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…b854backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?this page
- Will the California redistricting referendum not pass?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?Yes won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 40% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.