Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b2f8132d174968cf7b3e9cac4406b72608720093a19498c9678ede2e1084d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf11…8399backed Yes | 19c | 10,325$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 79c | 10,265$8,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.43 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 3c | 5,463$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.08 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 3,926$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 3c | 3,127$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 14c | 2,990$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 22c | 2,853$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 8c | 2,685$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 2,573$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…e999backed Yes | 4c | 2,275$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,082$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,046$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,418$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 6c | 1,382$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…63edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 78c | 1,110$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…935cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,092$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 3c | 817.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 785$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 779.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 632.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 512.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 8c | 418.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 300.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…7666backed Yes | 10c | 232.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…00dabacked Yes | 12c | 220.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…4721backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…f49abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…5522backed Yes | 18c | 112.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…d9abbacked Yes | 20c | 98.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…7404backed Yes | 19c | 65.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?this page
- Will the California redistricting referendum not pass?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?Yes won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 40% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.