Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf10c3f9b000723997c6f13db60e09ca6624988bab843fe1a9ced8605ac5e5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 19c | 1,622$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 9c | 1,194$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed No | 19c | 1,011$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…fbc5backed No | 7c | 993.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 65c | 953$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.95 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 944.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 52c | 816.21$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.74 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 2c | 765.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 8c | 652.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 80c | 631.44$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 71c | 563.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 49c | 545.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.75 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 510.26$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 42c | 499.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 5c | 458.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 51c | 282.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 75c | 263$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 256$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 43c | 255.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed No | 48c | 230.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed Yes | 64c | 226.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47c…4db7backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 58c | 199.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…2a19backed Yes | 71c | 169.57$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…2052backed Yes | 51c | 144.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 44c | 104.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 101$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…a6b0backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…dc7abacked No | 30c | 96.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 52c | 95.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 34c | 72.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2701…6d65backed Yes | 64c | 62.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 55c | 57.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…a011backed Yes | 59c | 50.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…35d0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…1313backed Yes | 52c | 44.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…db9ebacked No | 50c | 44.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 34cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 37.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Yes | 76c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…29e4backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…4f06backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…b166backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…fd10backed Yes | 80c | 15.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 20-30%?this page
- Will the California redistricting referendum not pass?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 30-40%?No won
- Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 40% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.