Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Sinja Kraus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36272e0b243efb3fa6d54b0bfd83dd5b5c2abb8feda03c3ea60dfa17b602e572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinja Krausof Darja Semenistaja, Sinja Kraus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,860 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Darja Semenistaja | 54c | 5,192$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.59 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sinja Kraus | 46c | 2,840$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.6 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Darja Semenistaja | 27c | 1,500$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Darja Semenistaja | 6c | 1,133$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Darja Semenistaja | 48c | 999.99$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…d322backed Sinja Kraus | 50c | 813.86$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Darja Semenistaja | 26c | 777.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 519 | 33.1%172 W · 347 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sinja Kraus | 68c | 678.09$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.32 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Darja Semenistaja | 46c | 609.44$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.12 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Sinja Kraus | 49c | 536.31$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.52 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Darja Semenistaja | 40c | 398.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Sinja Kraus | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 307.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 262 | 54.6%143 W · 119 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 271.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.74 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Darja Semenistaja | 6c | 268.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Sinja Kraus | 52c | 255$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Sinja Kraus | 46c | 245$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Sinja Kraus | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed Sinja Kraus | 67c | 206.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sinja Kraus | 72c | 203.07$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sinja Kraus | 62c | 201.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed Darja Semenistaja | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Sinja Kraus | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5a2fbacked Sinja Kraus | 71c | 197.18$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Sinja Kraus | 70c | 188.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 177.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 567 | 57.1%324 W · 243 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 173$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 51c | 157.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Darja Semenistaja | 45c | 154.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Darja Semenistaja | 49c | 154.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sinja Kraus | 52c | 153.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sinja Kraus | 72c | 145.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sinja Kraus | 77c | 140.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 116.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sinja Kraus | 46c | 114$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Sinja Kraus | 45c | 113.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Darja Semenistaja | 53c | 110.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Sinja Kraus | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…139abacked Sinja Kraus | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Sinja Kraus | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Darja Semenistaja | 53c | 94.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Darja Semenistaja | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 42.1%51 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…ca0bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Darja Semenistaja | 27c | 90.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Sinja Kraus | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Darja Semenistaja | 36c | 65.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Darja Semenistaja | 29c | 63.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinja Kraus | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Darja Semenistaja | 34c | 55.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 263 | 49.4%130 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sinja Kraus | 60c | 51.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Sinja Kraus | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 770 | 47.9%369 W · 401 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Darja Semenistaja | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Sinja Kraus | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 269 | 41.3%111 W · 158 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sinja Kraus | 46c | 42.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Darja Semenistaja | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Darja Semenistaja | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Sinja Kraus | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Sinja Kraus | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 228 | 47.4%108 W · 120 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Sinja Kraus | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Sinja Kraus | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Sinja Kraus | 49c | 37.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Sinja Kraus | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 302 | 58.6%177 W · 125 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…8f96backed Sinja Kraus | 79c | 30.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Sinja Kraus | 53c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Sinja Kraus | 52c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955f…2e25backed Sinja Kraus | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Sinja Krausthis page
- Darja Semenistaja vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Semenistaja vs KrausKraus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.