Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36495d79dfe74d29dc678604132f135947966da9867a8b6e863544796387db74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,227$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 2,507$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,351$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 1,735$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 1,222$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 736.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 5c | 709.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 58c | 528.07$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.08 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 513.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 2c | 497.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 7c | 441.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 419.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 44c | 411.01$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 409.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 67c | 340.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 5c | 306.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 5c | 289.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 252$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 54c | 244.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 15c | 236.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 229.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 57c | 227.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 6c | 217.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 9c | 211.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 15c | 207.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2923…00a5backed Yes | 6c | 204.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 198.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 29c | 194.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 9c | 189.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 67c | 163.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 151$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 11c | 151$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 143.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 10c | 140.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 139.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 38c | 130.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 10c | 125.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 81.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 80.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 80.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 76c | 78.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 78.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 71.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 63.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 62.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 59.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 68c | 56.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 60c | 46.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 69c | 43.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 42.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 41.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 73c | 41.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 27c | 36.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 33.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed Yes | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…9b51backed Yes | 76c | 25.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 78c | 25.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4069…9f7dbacked Yes | 60c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cec…dbffbacked No | 78c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 62c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.