Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79d869c707b7e1aa20181e84defdc4d21a305ec1ab56b6c28a5be0d2d1e51ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 1,953$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 5c | 1,769$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 1,024$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 883.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 16c | 799.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.27 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 629.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.03 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 69c | 623.58$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.25 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 74c | 533.36$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 462.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 12c | 444.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 40c | 425.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 350.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 332.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 22c | 326.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 9c | 303$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 27c | 273.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.22 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 238.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 9c | 234.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.81 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 223.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 214.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 209.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 45c | 199.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 8c | 197.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 7c | 192.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.35 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 176.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4476backed No | 80c | 173.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 166.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 54c | 159.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 48c | 152.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 20c | 133.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 132.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 128.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 127.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 108$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 20c | 104.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 11c | 100.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 96.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 94.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…bb37backed No | 76c | 91.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 13c | 91.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 83.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 77.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 67.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 66.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 63.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 68c | 53.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 19c | 52.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…9d62backed Yes | 27c | 52.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 51.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 71c | 48.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 43c | 47.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 31c | 46.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 29c | 45.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 33c | 44.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 33c | 42.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 42.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 38.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 77c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 36.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 34.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 78c | 32.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 57c | 32.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9756…2c30backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 56c | 25.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 78c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 64c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 19.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 76c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.