TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes10c1,953$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.762,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No5c1,769$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.251,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No12c1,024$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No7c883.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes16c799.77$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.2751733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes21c629.69$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.0327328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes69c623.58$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.2520445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes74c533.36$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.241,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No18c462.34$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No12c444.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.218,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes40c425.16$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0264460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No6c350.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No44c332.21$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.481,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…74b9backed No22c326.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes9c303$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.7353258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes27c273.87$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.2222550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes9c238.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes9c234.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.8199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c223.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No11c214.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.496,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c209.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Yes5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901245.6%7 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No45c199.9$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes8c197.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3424139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes7c192.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes32c176.39$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.623,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f04…4476backed No80c173.45$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c166.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.013,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes54c159.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.375158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f10…563bbacked Yes48c152.2$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.768835.2%31 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes13c146.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1521132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a75…bc59backed Yes20c133.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.081241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes40c132.97$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.871,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No48c128.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c127.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No44c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.818046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c108$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes20c104.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3338930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes11c100.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2530665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9019552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes22c96.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.872,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes12c94.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9365627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09fd…bb37backed No76c91.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes13c91.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.281,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes17c88.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.246653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes31c83.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.386,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No44c77.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1317947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No65c67.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.152,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No47c66.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No55c63.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.816847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes22c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked No68c53.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.397832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes19c52.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3516641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde08…9d62backed Yes27c52.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c51.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.832,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes71c48.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes43c47.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.882,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes31c46.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0547239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes29c45.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x362e…a692backed Yes33c44.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.396328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes33c42.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.861,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c42.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.532,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes60c38.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.642,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes77c38.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.871485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55da…74efbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.042157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No48c36.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No73c34.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1525358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes78c32.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.223845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed No57c32.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6429536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.443663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9756…2c30backed No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes56c25.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.312,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe950…0f89backed No78c25.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62871.4%20 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No43c24.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.349262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x22f4…89d3backed Yes49c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.642339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes64c20.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2610745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes63c19.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9899962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes76c18.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.399857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No66c16.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes74c15.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8840871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.