MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3653cafdecee9e7272ef57a2028a6d474c1e9bd4e6763f920a8d122fa9a3cf27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 55c | 2,652$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.45 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 47c | 2,130$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.1 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,988$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 1,151$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Under | 55c | 903.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 63c | 891.8$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.87 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 773.09$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 665.03$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 343.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 238.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 57c | 236.29$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 40c | 191.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 39c | 170.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 78.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 75.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 52c | 51.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Over | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 45c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 47c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 47c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 47c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…e71fbacked Under | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.