MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d8dcfdaee070d9d1055b477ada58e3a2fb8a6686834673d415530cda3d0a68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x348f…a206backed Yes | 55c | 738.7$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.7 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed No | 49c | 406.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 48c | 267.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 51c | 260$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed No | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 52c | 206.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 179$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 50c | 173.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…0b74backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4625…f7f6backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.