World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3655dcf42a988cdcca798dc70ee42cc0db937a7f4aae01d2ba1f01ad5b4484c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 834.53$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 433.3$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 396.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 305.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 236.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 12c | 214.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 9c | 199.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 179.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 175.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 31c | 130.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 19c | 112.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 34c | 105.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 34c | 102.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 83.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 79.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 78.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 71.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 64.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 30.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 15.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.