World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6bd54a94a3beeb20bf81818870931b34a994aa982f58044ced79d085b1a937f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,255$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,192$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 654.72$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.65 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 485.5$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 467.62$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 440.47$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 39c | 417.65$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 398.96$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 369.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 362.81$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 358.97$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 36c | 326.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 306$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 297.66$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 34c | 286.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 4c | 279.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 250.83$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 237.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 232.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 34c | 220.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 51c | 210.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed No | 77c | 202.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 58c | 200.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 39c | 191.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 7c | 188.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 179$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 25c | 175.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 170.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 170$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 62c | 162.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 154.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 148$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 146.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 29c | 140.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 137.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 135.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 126.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 34c | 117.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 109.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 108.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 11c | 106.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 106.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 102.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 68c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 38c | 96.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 42c | 88.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 58c | 86.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 14c | 80.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 76.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 52c | 73.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed Yes | 37c | 69.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 35c | 69.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 68.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 66.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 57c | 64.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 34c | 60.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 60.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed No | 59c | 58.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 56.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 37c | 56.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…4b30backed Yes | 37c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 52.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 57c | 52.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 52.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 51.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 51.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 30c | 50.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 50.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 50.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 50.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…81cdbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e9…c4a3backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 48c | 49.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 55c | 47.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 47.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 47.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 44.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 25c | 43.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 40.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.