World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d85a4cac358e48224e3696e4cc72f399c93c21e51b9a6da3de5eaefbd1d801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d1b…d40fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,736$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 1,428$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.61 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 595.06$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.72 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 594.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 3c | 562.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…4b30backed Yes | 24c | 515.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 481.7$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 401.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 274.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 15c | 268$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 250.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 227.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 218.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 215.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 206$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 179$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 174.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 174.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 165.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 7c | 164.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 160.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 141.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 138.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 135$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 31c | 127.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 118.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 58c | 106.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 102.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 42c | 101.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 40c | 99.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 99.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 90.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 79.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 41c | 72.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked No | 78c | 69.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 39c | 63.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 63.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 60.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 58.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 56.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 65c | 55.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 65c | 54.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 53.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 23c | 52.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 52.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 41c | 51.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 39c | 49.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 46.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 45.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed No | 63c | 44.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 41.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 41.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 39.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa481…f126backed Yes | 41c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 33.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 60c | 27.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 61c | 27.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 40c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 24.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 61c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8dd1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.