World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2e6fc1e41c24e2be4a357c9e1d88548c3f5f89625dcc58a94b11a5b78907969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,763$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.33 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,121$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 767.38$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.35 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 80c | 737.71$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 49c | 673.91$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 55c | 645.1$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.97 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 619.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.68 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 604.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 576.22$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.91 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 66c | 533.44$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.09 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 48c | 523.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 481.63$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 76c | 454.1$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.53 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 440.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 425.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 366.12$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 356.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.68 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 329.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 33c | 314.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 67c | 288.2$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 72c | 263.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 79c | 249.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 13c | 238.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 236.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 228.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 223.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 220.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 76c | 204.66$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 76c | 199.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 193.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 186.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 179$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 177.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 177.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 173.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 172.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 170.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 70c | 164.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 153.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 78c | 152.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +209%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 37c | 136.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 26c | 135.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 15c | 134.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 133$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes | 75c | 132.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 16c | 128.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 79c | 126.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 113.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 14c | 101.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 16c | 101.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 17c | 94.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 21c | 93.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 89.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 86.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 80.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 78.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 64c | 78.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 19c | 74.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 70.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 23c | 63.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 53.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 52.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 29c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 46.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 25c | 46.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 43.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…3620backed Yes | 67c | 43.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 78c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 68c | 42.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 40.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 39.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x322d…53c6backed No | 31c | 35.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 67c | 34.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 45c | 33.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 64c | 33.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 79c | 32.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 62c | 30.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 68c | 28.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.