IPO · resolved market
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.25B and $3.50B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36598d91a28aeea0fb0df3d0baa99f02a522fa6ddb1e6ca9744fe769217f596b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 3c | 544.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed Yes | 17c | 336.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 36c | 324.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 270.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 187.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cc…7660backed No | 62c | 50.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed No | 65c | 49.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3897…aa8dbacked Yes | 38c | 49.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.25B and $3.50B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will AGI Inc. not IPO before April 2026?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $2.75B and $3.00B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.00B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be greater than $3.50B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.