IPO · resolved market
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x184ea51df07969cb43cdf21856b7e8a27d153dac952bf531bcf0eed3fa9218e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 15c | 1,216$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 49c | 1,180$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 1,077$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.32 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 57c | 878$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…3f91backed Yes | 15c | 604.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 17c | 528$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…6969backed Yes | 59c | 332$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 43c | 323.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 259$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed No | 60c | 250$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked No | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 23c | 176$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 167.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 52c | 153.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…9f81backed No | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…ed07backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 18.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will AGI Inc. not IPO before April 2026?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $2.75B and $3.00B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.00B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be between $3.25B and $3.50B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be greater than $3.50B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.