CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x365afd4f47c784254829f96faf2ea2eea2d833af0c790c79e32caf5f78eaf063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Walczakiof HOTU, Walczaki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda1a…3407backed HOTU | 57c | 970$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.4 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Walczaki | 45c | 461$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.47 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Walczaki | 34c | 368.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Walczaki | 43c | 320.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed HOTU | 56c | 312.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.95 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Walczaki | 45c | 216.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Walczaki | 44c | 192.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Walczaki | 52c | 179.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 305 | 27.5%84 W · 221 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Walczaki | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +275%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Walczaki | 54c | 143.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed HOTU | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed HOTU | 69c | 101.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked HOTU | 76c | 98.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…e508backed Walczaki | 35c | 74.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked HOTU | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 366 | 45.6%167 W · 199 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…2450backed HOTU | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked HOTU | 37c | 68.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed HOTU | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Walczaki | 41c | 60.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed Walczaki | 59c | 57.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…cfabbacked HOTU | 39c | 51.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…f527backed Walczaki | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 488 | 26.2%128 W · 360 L | -44.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed HOTU | 57c | 43.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Walczaki | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked HOTU | 60c | 35.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed HOTU | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Walczaki | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HOTU | 41c | 26.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…fda1backed Walczaki | 64c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 411 | 47.7%196 W · 215 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 PlayoffsWalczaki won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.