MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3682bb827c74d9e3027357b3e9eeec482017a547880d7278f0f6c94f75b7c32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 56c | 8,929$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,928.57 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 8,542$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 42c | 1,863$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.54 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 973$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 955.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 41c | 894.18$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.3 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 552.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 58c | 199$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 58c | 166$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 40c | 149.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 74c | 111.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 17c | 90.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Over | 28c | 81.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 15c | 76.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 75c | 66.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 20c | 62.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Over | 28c | 60.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 55c | 41.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.