MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44874734d79b806b5f4264f566f7549736dd5042ba7abb26322194be69f1b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 7,260$3,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.34 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 272 | 53.7%146 W · 126 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 2,285$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 2,285$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.79 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.34 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,178$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.38 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 1,065$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 48c | 1,033$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.67 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 902.98$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.18 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 54c | 893.14$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.84 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 839.27$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 733.07$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.19 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 695.13$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 562.88$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.98 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 501$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 380$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 286.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 249.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 43c | 223.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 48c | 209.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…037fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 48c | 202.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 47c | 147.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 98.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 70.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…b678backed Under | 53c | 64.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Over | 48c | 52.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 49c | 51.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7a82backed Under | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 47c | 42.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 40.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 47c | 37.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…9936backed Over | 47c | 35.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 44c | 35.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 32.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 32.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 43c | 25.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 44c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Over | 48c | 24.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.