NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368d78b5f311ff2c986316c9cc8080fa49c997dd4f1f61c9cc1e572ed68cfb81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Under | 46c | 15,892$7,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,581.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 11,544$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,239.88 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 5,267$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.17 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 56c | 2,833$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 2,340$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.43 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 1,258$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.47 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 45c | 1,100$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 53c | 946.98$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.9 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 54c | 874.07$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 830.59$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.57 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 639$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.67 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 444$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 388.89$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…627ebacked Under | 48c | 199$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…8ab2backed Over | 53c | 199$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 115.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 47c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 48c | 103.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 48c | 99.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 54c | 80.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Over | 30c | 67.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 60.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 53c | 48.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 36.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Under | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. CanucksCanucks won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.