Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a0c42f1930b4c7be89dd3496e554f852b68d5d621df95672a00d34d7344580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,835 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 0c | 35,892$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 7,719$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 5,310$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 21c | 1,602$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.09 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…7456backed Yes | 79c | 1,517$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 3c | 1,074$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 979.03$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.65 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 66c | 929.99$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Yes | 77c | 705.42$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…eab4backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 54c | 362.09$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.24 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…25d5backed No | 7c | 285$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…e882backed No | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 37c | 251.81$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 47c | 210.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 31c | 205$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 72c | 199.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 177.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 66c | 162$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 150.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 40c | 141.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 139.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 123.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 116.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 25c | 113.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 77c | 79.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed No | 21c | 75.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 66.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Yes | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 53c | 50.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 59c | 41.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 37c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 63c | 38.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 76c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…e26dbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 44c | 25.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…3b7fbacked No | 75c | 20.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.