Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6a916190e880b2b230ef9b5f5e22c9e3aa6289049e0cc1b5a1e280e0e0a035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,885 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 0c | 21,560$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,133$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 999$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 513.69$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 21c | 476.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 47c | 322.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…2c78backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 239.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 215.06$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Yes | 25c | 186.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 18c | 168$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 29c | 162$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 75c | 139.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 129.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 12c | 119.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 41c | 102.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 16c | 83.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 81.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 68.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 60.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 57c | 52.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 61c | 49.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 34c | 34.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.