Fed Rates · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36a8b9be52c977bf04900c61fb698dbf77ad039f2ce049afdc235bda455a6183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb169…b67abacked No | 1c | 106,000$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,960$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…2e2bbacked No | 2c | 1,949$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 2c | 1,492$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +366%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,324$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 1c | 1,223$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 1,201$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…c1acbacked No | 3c | 1,174$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…5d53backed No | 13c | 679.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 3c | 523.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 431.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…1de2backed No | 12c | 390.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61a…fed7backed No | 10c | 302.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…5e20backed No | 15c | 273.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf168…43fabacked No | 13c | 260.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…a09cbacked No | 8c | 246.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 9c | 195.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…2454backed No | 9c | 192.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…ece6backed No | 11c | 185.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3861…7313backed No | 15c | 106.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 18c | 73.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked Yes | 80c | 36.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.