Tennis · resolved market
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d58f3d35128ff4b59f3818362430b8aded3c330467a6d1f5eae9ba0287c698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolas Oliveiraof Juan Manuel La Serna, Nicolas Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 36c | 1,269$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.99 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 57c | 920.7$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.96 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Nicolas Oliveira | 27c | 722.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.39 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 28c | 708.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolas Oliveira | 23c | 644.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.66 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 589.75$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.91 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 70c | 565.51$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.32 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 62c | 484.84$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.39 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Nicolas Oliveira | 23c | 442.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.39 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 430.22$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.74 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…d4d7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 58c | 399$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 34c | 278$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.31 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 38c | 272.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Nicolas Oliveira | 27c | 269.11$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 37c | 254.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 23c | 247.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.06 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 240.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 78c | 206.92$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Nicolas Oliveira | 32c | 201.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Nicolas Oliveira | 29c | 188.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.87 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…04efbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 20c | 174.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 57c | 163.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 151.69$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nicolas Oliveira | 22c | 120.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 77c | 118.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nicolas Oliveira | 21c | 107.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Nicolas Oliveira | 62c | 83.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nicolas Oliveira | 26c | 83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 70.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…a9a7backed Nicolas Oliveira | 30c | 59.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 27c | 59.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nicolas Oliveira | 29c | 56.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…06b3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -8.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 71c | 32.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 40c | 28.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 79c | 20.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…205cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 79c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.