MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36fa629e873d03075a7feab16597b7e3afe7706e66c86a07c446de3e2e7823c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 21c | 952.17$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.81 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 55c | 764.73$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…db18backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 517.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 459$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 366.15$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 338.91$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 270.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 203$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.95 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 157$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 68c | 139$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 51c | 87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 66.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 40.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…3a74backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Texas Rangers | 67c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 27.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 20.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 76c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.