MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47c76fc2720bc3188eef70d65b6403e74cf044fb018fa547eb0a7e42c7d5590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 52c | 4,275$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 2,255$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 60c | 1,500$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 935.26$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 899.57$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 868.52$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.89 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 805.12$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 48c | 669.42$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.23 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 642.47$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 502.62$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Under | 51c | 395$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 371$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.08 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 313.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 309.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 270.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 54c | 223.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 54c | 214$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 50c | 209$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 49c | 208.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 47c | 124.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 52c | 50.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 38.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 52c | 27.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 69c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 76c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.