Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 149.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3712a824fff5deef398d4717d5d017d6862ad8e21995872aeae70b7c52071d17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 51c | 30,749$15,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,040.11 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,670$4,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,716.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 52c | 7,187$3,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.09 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 3,374$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.44 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Under | 49c | 2,043$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 47c | 799.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.2 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 608.07$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.8 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 51c | 558.82$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.82 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 54c | 380$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 337.49$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.65 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 114.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 54c | 92.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 70.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 52c | 68.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 149.5this page
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico LobosNew Mexico Lobos won
- Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-7.5)Nevada Wolf Pack won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.