Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Menšík vs. Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37177d849c74a9ef2b82452e5dfa5f2bb8c8e6c64417a944a971472ac0826292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Menšíkof Menšík, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Menšík | 28c | 6,672$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,815.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…79e8backed Fritz | 69c | 3,040$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…59e5backed Fritz | 72c | 1,462$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Menšík | 36c | 1,408$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.32 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fritz | 72c | 1,238$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.35 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe139…07e5backed Fritz | 60c | 1,166$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fritz | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…7facbacked Fritz | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Fritz | 72c | 955.64$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.06 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Menšík | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fritz | 69c | 205.47$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Fritz | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Menšík | 29c | 196.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fritz | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Fritz | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Menšík | 54c | 97.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Menšík | 29c | 86.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Menšík | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fritz | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Fritz | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645b…893cbacked Fritz | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.