Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x372c6e89c89bb5b9bd2d19d1424d283b9ab3f9e36dbb38958be7e2fb0cc20811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 6c | 656.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 413.04$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 182.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 159.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 68c | 159.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 56c | 142.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 135.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 20c | 123.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 52c | 68.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 62.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 58c | 60.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 57.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe366…2ffebacked Yes | 66c | 54.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 53.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 42.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 39c | 42.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 29c | 41.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 30c | 40.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 40.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 75c | 39.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 49c | 36.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 29.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1032backed No | 52c | 22.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 63c | 17.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 64c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 16.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.