Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3737c2a1a5681d363745da1efda699e9de23eac91297411a7f153aa698cc28e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 941.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 314$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 211.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 210$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 198.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…4036backed No | 76c | 186$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 165.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 36c | 163.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 152.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 68c | 147.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 32c | 112$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 54c | 111.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 92.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 83.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 83.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 76.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 74.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 73.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 69.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 68c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 53.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 77c | 47.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 76c | 43.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 48c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 51c | 31.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 75c | 27.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 27.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 26.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…ddbfbacked Yes | 62c | 25.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 80c | 18.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 62c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.