Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8436d94aab3a569a708521a173da1301629e5f07851285cca0fb5111b5820b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 40c | 1,245$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.28 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 800$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 36c | 736.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.83 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 636.79$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 600$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 571.32$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 25c | 399.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 348.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 314$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 292.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 228.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 222.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 193.34$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 68c | 193.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 180$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 165.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 54c | 164.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 164.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 145.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 138.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 129.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 38c | 109$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 51c | 108.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 100.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 96.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 76.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 25c | 75.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Yes | 67c | 74.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 73.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 73.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 72.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 60.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 60.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 51c | 54.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed No | 60c | 54.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 69c | 54.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 46.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 45.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 44.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 39c | 43.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 43.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 55c | 42.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 38.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 39c | 32.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 33c | 32.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 25.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…bad1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.