Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d6e0c5ac557a2cd9dacfd14fe9039f2052a4ff1c21ad89d250f5f388e18af7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 2,550$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.72 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 610.82$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 507.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 5c | 403.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 314$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 287.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 286.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes | 28c | 183.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 70c | 176.9$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f2…507fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed No | 64c | 105.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 99.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…1d63backed Yes | 28c | 94.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 33c | 87.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 77.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 72c | 64.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 57.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 57.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 56.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 52.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 26c | 52.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 51.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 77c | 51.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…fa93backed Yes | 36c | 50.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 41.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 38.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 35.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 34.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 33.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 32.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 63c | 26.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 72c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 73c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 72c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 63c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 72c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.