Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3738a3e53f391663c426b5fed38b8ac480e9f48caf3f9abee31b2fc2d35d9e33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,373 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.97 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,677$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 58c | 2,331$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,122$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 1,301$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.53 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 750$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.98 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 735.55$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.55 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Under | 44c | 668.58$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Under | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 518.06$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 8c | 294.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 55c | 222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Over | 56c | 178.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 52c | 177.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Over | 56c | 173.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Over | 56c | 166.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 151.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Over | 56c | 150.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 135.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 86.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Under | 56c | 70.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 54c | 55.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 46c | 54.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 44c | 54.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 49c | 38.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 44c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.