Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x374145ccbf3ca0d7912766a53bac68883fb74016ef3d267b7f232a2084fc7309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 3c | 7,168$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 5,895$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed No | 6c | 3,280$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 4c | 1,116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 12c | 999.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 2c | 660.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…8b46backed No | 3c | 354.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 19c | 199.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…2253backed No | 19c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 128.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 73c | 115.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 22c | 77.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…d618backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 20c | 65.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dc1dbacked No | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 23c | 48.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 80c | 31.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.