South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3753b4bd6b8c68fa46a3a5a20e246fad7046a41268bde85a349a816d8d0ebd07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 59c | 30,000$17,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,695.37 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 41c | 26,538$10,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,657.36 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 2,996$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.83 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 1c | 2,799$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 1c | 1,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 1,377$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 35c | 1,140$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.22 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 73c | 1,061$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.24 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 52c | 980.17$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.71 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 34c | 945.98$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.77 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…65edbacked Yes | 44c | 804.31$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 38c | 534.95$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Yes | 42c | 452.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 445.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.55 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 13c | 420.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.55 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 39c | 390$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 28c | 360.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 3c | 343$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 32c | 277.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 36c | 255$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 42c | 238.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 58c | 230.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 41c | 214.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 165$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 60c | 142$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…ee79backed Yes | 76c | 113.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…2335backed Yes | 75c | 109.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 40c | 103.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 59c | 101.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked Yes | 25c | 101.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…2f35backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 40c | 85.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 41c | 48.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 44.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 59c | 32.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…7684backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 58c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 64c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-11-25?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.