CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x376a616caf2a5d00b4b72f37a4a0958ecc9785ce32e0532cd9fa940acac994e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FUT Esportsof Natus Vincere, FUT Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,750 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked FUT Esports | 69c | 10,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 7,943$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.78 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 5,777$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.99 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FUT Esports | 70c | 5,555$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.19 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045e…33a6backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 3,345$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 1,098$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.54 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed FUT Esports | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb29e…d14fbacked FUT Esports | 69c | 999.97$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked FUT Esports | 35c | 976$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.26 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FUT Esports | 43c | 972.87$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.54 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports | 74c | 669.1$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 269 | 52.8%142 W · 127 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…4fc6backed FUT Esports | 36c | 521$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…e271backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 519.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 379 | 46.4%176 W · 203 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed FUT Esports | 70c | 437.75$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.88 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7258…f825backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 402$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed FUT Esports | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d2…21bdbacked FUT Esports | 36c | 391$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…359bbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 358.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 337.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FUT Esports | 49c | 308.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…47fcbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 295$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a6…a5cfbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 278.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked FUT Esports | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…f02cbacked FUT Esports | 71c | 238$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863e…1424backed FUT Esports | 71c | 218$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5d16backed FUT Esports | 71c | 209$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9466backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 199$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b11…6230backed FUT Esports | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…923cbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 173$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8739backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 169$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…0afcbacked FUT Esports | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked FUT Esports | 70c | 165.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 424 | 40.3%171 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed FUT Esports | 70c | 164$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…d276backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 162$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…1a6dbacked FUT Esports | 71c | 162$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…d5f1backed FUT Esports | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…4cd4backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…31ccbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 149$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…f510backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 147$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8836…4eb4backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 124$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed FUT Esports | 37c | 115.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…0b7abacked FUT Esports | 69c | 110.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed FUT Esports | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa730…bd15backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d0…6d0bbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked FUT Esports | 33c | 105.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked FUT Esports | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 288 | 56.6%163 W · 125 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed FUT Esports | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 225 | 51.1%115 W · 110 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f911backed FUT Esports | 70c | 98.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 86.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…f6c9backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 72.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6234…15c9backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed FUT Esports | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…1a83backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 49.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…f3eabacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…fecfbacked FUT Esports | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…33b6backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 42.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…bcf3backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed FUT Esports | 71c | 37.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 446 | 54.9%245 W · 201 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…7038backed FUT Esports | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed FUT Esports | 69c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.