CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37806c8611b5f984449127cf53d4760c5b5615c479e6a1ae183a1718c905d0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Infinite
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Infinite | 19c | 1,660$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.98 | 4,261 | 49.2%2,098 W · 2,163 L | +62.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Infinite | 47c | 1,561$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.24 | 606 | 39.9%242 W · 364 L | -14.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…3b71backed Aurora Gaming | 57c | 1,021$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…5348backed Infinite | 55c | 824.87$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.68 | 724 | 53.7%389 W · 335 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Infinite | 43c | 695.59$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 6,522 | 42.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L | -80.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Infinite | 22c | 676.74$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Infinite | 24c | 612.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 470 | 45.3%213 W · 257 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Infinite | 3c | 606.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 8,058 | 50.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L | +171.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked Aurora Gaming | 50c | 587.29$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.79 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…f97bbacked Aurora Gaming | 63c | 516.58$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.95 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Infinite | 52c | 482.98$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 5,911 | 37.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L | +74.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Infinite | 29c | 455.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora Gaming | 76c | 327.87$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 5,651 | 47.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L | +46.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed Infinite | 33c | 299.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Infinite | 56c | 268.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 185.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Infinite | 13c | 127.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Infinite | 40c | 124.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…c695backed Infinite | 43c | 110.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…c4adbacked Infinite | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Infinite | 26c | 97.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Infinite | 52c | 90.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Aurora Gaming | 54c | 90.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 553 | 40%221 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Infinite | 37c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Infinite | 25c | 79.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,606 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,235 L | +96.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…526dbacked Infinite | 28c | 69.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 57.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Infinite | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Aurora Gaming | 80c | 55.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Infinite | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,484 | 24.7%613 W · 1,871 L | -318.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…1080backed Infinite | 31c | 49.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…7703backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 47.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Aurora Gaming | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Aurora Gaming | 76c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 271 | 50.6%137 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Infinite | 37c | 33.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Infinite | 51c | 26.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f2…f5e7backed Aurora Gaming | 45c | 26.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Aurora Gaming | 46c | 24.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…ea83backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 325 | 61.2%199 W · 126 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Infinite | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Infinite | 52c | 19.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…c4c5backed Infinite | 57c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.