CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4742ffcd9b99fb3eb2e11bf37fa8463341994ac047c7a8df530bd934c5cceee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Infinite
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c5a…ff9fbacked Infinite | 31c | 5,341$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 2,068$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.04 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 1,481$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.03 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Infinite | 32c | 1,125$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.01 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 795.64$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.45 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Infinite | 31c | 469.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…1cc2backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 429.2$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.05 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 331.92$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 311.89$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…962ebacked Infinite | 34c | 290.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 286.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 235 | 57.4%135 W · 100 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 284.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 246.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 240.81$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Aurora Gaming | 68c | 133.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 617 | 54.8%338 W · 279 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 113.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Infinite | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 98.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 230 | 57%131 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…a3e9backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 79.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Infinite | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 51.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 512 | 52.3%268 W · 244 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…b8b0backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 50.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 295 | 58.6%173 W · 122 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…2364backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 41.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…c9bebacked Aurora Gaming | 70c | 35.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.