Fifa International · resolved market
Iraq to score first vs. Norway?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378abbd010ff7ae06e719e5a7706c15ed049ade970b93de0ff415172853e755a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f6…a35bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21bf…cc65backed Yes | 18c | 5,588$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 17c | 3,285$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.51 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 1,604$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.32 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…3053backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…ec60backed Yes | 20c | 502.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…ebd1backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 20c | 327$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 14c | 317$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 20c | 312$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +10.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 14c | 309.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…720fbacked Yes | 17c | 287.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…de87backed Yes | 16c | 287.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 123 | 20.3%25 W · 98 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 43.4%98 W · 128 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 10c | 249.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 204 | 27.5%56 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…101ebacked Yes | 18c | 205.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…bb21backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 18.5%57 W · 251 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…9e87backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02b…7b98backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…2e69backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4453backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…1445backed Yes | 20c | 98.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…dcaebacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…fb20backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iraq to score first vs. Norway?this page
- Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first?No won
- Norway to score first vs. Iraq?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.