Fifa International · resolved market
Norway to score first vs. Iraq?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcafe3ff7d03276e0ba20a7ccd837b4f944116875c8195c954cbdd34c2f055952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 20c | 2,877$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.47 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 80c | 1,591$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.67 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 20c | 1,227$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 1,056$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.68 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…695bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,008$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 116 | 65.5%76 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed No | 8c | 874.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b3b4backed No | 19c | 826.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 203 | 33.5%68 W · 135 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 19c | 825.41$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 598.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 416.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 79c | 408.4$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 74c | 399.82$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 349.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 28c | 253$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +10.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed No | 28c | 253$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 28c | 248$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 80c | 181.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 180 | 37.2%67 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…8b3ebacked Yes | 80c | 163.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 80c | 149.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 78c | 139.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 23c | 137.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 21c | 131.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…e600backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 95.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…9d13backed Yes | 79c | 92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…3bdfbacked Yes | 80c | 71.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…7efabacked No | 19c | 58.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…3394backed Yes | 79c | 41.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…70dbbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…2431backed Yes | 79c | 37.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…4969backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…9f06backed Yes | 78c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…089abacked Yes | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…b086backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…f956backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…5158backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…83a9backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…52d9backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 80c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 285 | 45.6%130 W · 155 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Yes | 79c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…5cbabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffd…109cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…32b8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 261 | 51.7%135 W · 126 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a63…5b30backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norway to score first vs. Iraq?this page
- Iraq to score first vs. Norway?No won
- Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.