Mls · resolved market
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378b7fa2cdb304205dc1aae0d446f756a1a62ff803fc9f2da40d11edbc3b7d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Inter Miami CF, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Inter Miami CF | 13c | 497.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Inter Miami CF | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Austin FC | 71c | 169.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Inter Miami CF | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Inter Miami CF | 29c | 111.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Austin FC | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Austin FC | 77c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Inter Miami CF | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Austin FC | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Austin FC | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Austin FC | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Austin FC | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Austin FC | 72c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Austin FC | 70c | 22.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)this page
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.