Mls · resolved market
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x970da1e2004b01c712f4505690fbbc4e8cd5fd481b6842d47b13c0f113c7a44f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin FCof Inter Miami CF, Austin FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Austin FC | 50c | 916.16$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.08 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Austin FC | 52c | 758.81$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.61 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Inter Miami CF | 43c | 700$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Austin FC | 66c | 347.14$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Austin FC | 63c | 335.06$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Inter Miami CF | 52c | 318.83$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Inter Miami CF | 36c | 299.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Inter Miami CF | 46c | 270$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Inter Miami CF | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Austin FC | 49c | 248.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Inter Miami CF | 49c | 204.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Inter Miami CF | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Inter Miami CF | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inter Miami CF | 44c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Austin FC | 53c | 149.06$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Inter Miami CF | 39c | 143.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Austin FC | 67c | 123.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Inter Miami CF | 49c | 110.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Austin FC | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Inter Miami CF | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Inter Miami CF | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Inter Miami CF | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Austin FC | 52c | 65.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…af88backed Austin FC | 54c | 65.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Inter Miami CF | 48c | 61.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Austin FC | 49c | 61.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…8014backed Inter Miami CF | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Austin FC | 55c | 40.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Inter Miami CF | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Inter Miami CF | 45c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Austin FC | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Austin FC | 50c | 35.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Inter Miami CF | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Inter Miami CF | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Inter Miami CF | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Austin FC | 80c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)this page
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Inter Miami CF vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Austin FC (-2.5)Inter Miami CF won
- Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.