Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Maria Sholokhova vs Sera Nishimoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379965d018d36c1b5ccb473c1f85bae21bfa806a21fe6513a0a6c15c79848c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maria Sholokhovaof Maria Sholokhova, Sera Nishimoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sera Nishimoto | 16c | 4,744$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.51 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sera Nishimoto | 27c | 955.77$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.96 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Sera Nishimoto | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sera Nishimoto | 20c | 317.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Sera Nishimoto | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Sera Nishimoto | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Sera Nishimoto | 21c | 168.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maria Sholokhova | 80c | 135.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sera Nishimoto | 13c | 110.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sera Nishimoto | 11c | 90.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Maria Sholokhova | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Maria Sholokhova | 79c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Maria Sholokhova | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Maria Sholokhova | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Maria Sholokhova | 79c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Maria Sholokhova | 77c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 433 | 59.6%258 W · 175 L | +26.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Maria Sholokhova | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.