Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Gabriela Knutson vs Varvara Lepchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a595a1d377f8b6220597de0156224251303dcfc8af69811291f86190824c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gabriela Knutsonof Gabriela Knutson, Varvara Lepchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gabriela Knutson | 61c | 1,617$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.75 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Varvara Lepchenko | 20c | 1,012$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Varvara Lepchenko | 35c | 803.01$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.31 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Gabriela Knutson | 79c | 795$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 417 | 48.2%201 W · 216 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Gabriela Knutson | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 949 | 68.1%646 W · 303 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…67f1backed Varvara Lepchenko | 5c | 381.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…d8fcbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 52c | 370.37$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Gabriela Knutson | 58c | 336$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Gabriela Knutson | 73c | 265.91$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Varvara Lepchenko | 41c | 254$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Varvara Lepchenko | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 538 | 47%253 W · 285 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 36c | 160.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Varvara Lepchenko | 39c | 127.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Varvara Lepchenko | 32c | 98.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 310 | 31%96 W · 214 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Varvara Lepchenko | 41c | 97.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gabriela Knutson | 56c | 84.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Gabriela Knutson | 61c | 58.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…32b5backed Gabriela Knutson | 73c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 328 | 56.7%186 W · 142 L | +21.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Varvara Lepchenko | 23c | 55.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,326 | 52.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L | +85.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Gabriela Knutson | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 593 | 47.4%281 W · 312 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Gabriela Knutson | 63c | 47.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Gabriela Knutson | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…8876backed Gabriela Knutson | 58c | 44.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 39c | 41.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…1369backed Gabriela Knutson | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Gabriela Knutson | 67c | 40.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,476 | 43.8%647 W · 829 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b0…741bbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 41c | 35.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Gabriela Knutson | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Gabriela Knutson | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 388 | 66.2%257 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Gabriela Knutson | 68c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 278 | 32.4%90 W · 188 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gabriela Knutson | 75c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…188abacked Gabriela Knutson | 69c | 26.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Gabriela Knutson | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Gabriela Knutson | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 359 | 56.8%204 W · 155 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…5af2backed Gabriela Knutson | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 129 | 61.2%79 W · 50 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Gabriela Knutson | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Gabriela Knutson | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed Gabriela Knutson | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 389 | 51.2%199 W · 190 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Gabriela Knutson | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Gabriela Knutson | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 304 | 65.5%199 W · 105 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc611…cc2ebacked Gabriela Knutson | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Open, Qualification WTA: Gabriela Knutson vs Varvara Lepchenkothis page
- Game Spread: Knutson (-1.5) vs Lepchenko (+1.5)Knutson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.