Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e8e5137ee9f667e7f9e748f6ccf09f551f9b8b86d73297e3b69114bb92ea1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed Yes | 31c | 1,600$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 69c | 1,200$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 805$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 7c | 669.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed Yes | 31c | 644$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…1d0ebacked No | 69c | 344$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…339fbacked No | 57c | 302.42$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 252.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 36c | 214.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…6fb4backed No | 62c | 177$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 31c | 171.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…c7dfbacked No | 73c | 127.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…b66bbacked Yes | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 27c | 81.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 46c | 78.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…633bbacked Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 70c | 52.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…a380backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…c2b7backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e98…9566backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…6727backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…1e2bbacked Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…ed6abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…6b5abacked Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…4530backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b53…9370backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad0…27a2backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…4b52backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11aa…c673backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecd…37c9backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…92b7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 54°F or higher on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.