MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f6555280a10cb69295d6957a11361b39c29632e4ce2a2ae7d7396bacecf78e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 1,011$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.93 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 19c | 984.45$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 36c | 979.48$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Yankees | 31c | 189.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 157.17$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 28c | 157.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 24c | 80.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 58.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 42.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 35.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Detroit Tigers | 73c | 20.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit TigersNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.